Transfers to the budget rose 38.6%, from NOK 346.5bn in 2024 to NOK 480.2bn in 2025; 2026 is estimated at NOK 466.4bn. Net allocations fell from NOK 355.7bn to NOK 183.8bn, before a projected recovery to NOK 219.1bn.
The structural non-oil deficit rises from NOK 445.7bn in 2024 to NOK 579.0bn in 2026—29.9% higher. Fund and government net-inflow bases remain unreconciled, though both show a 2025 decline.
The Iran war lifted energy prices—and Norway’s 2026 petroleum cash-flow estimate by NOK 164.6 billion in seven months. The Ministry assumes crude at US$68/bbl in 2025, US$91 in 2026 and US$80 in 2027.
The resource base is still declining. Without significant discoveries, production may fall steeply after 2030: by 2050, the Directorate’s Low scenario is near zero, while its High scenario retains about two-thirds of current output.