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Prediction markets · Ownership disclosure · 30 September 2026.

The only filed Polymarket stake

ICE reported 14% of Polymarket on a fully diluted basis as of 30 June 2026.

One disclosed position—not a cap table

ICE’s Q1 and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q filings are the reviewed record’s only source of filed Polymarket ownership percentages. At 30 June 2026, ICE reported 22% of outstanding shares and 14% fully diluted; its separate common-stock holding was below 1% on both bases.

No comparable filed percentage is available for 1789 Capital, Shayne Coplan or other holders. The research also did not find a Polymarket-published cap table—an absence finding, not proof that none exists elsewhere.

What ICE disclosed

Oct. 2025 announcement: Up to $2B at an ~$8B pre-investment valuation
Completed purchases: $1.64B filed total
April 2026 tender: $40M of common shares from unnamed existing holders
Carrying value: Approximately $2.0B
Q1 revaluation: +$389M; ~$1.99B cost-plus-gain tie-out is derived

1board seat

ICE may nominate and vote exclusively to elect one Polymarket director

What the filing establishes—and what it does not

Carrying value: Approximately $2.0B
Policy influence: ICE says its preferred holdings plus the April tender provide significant influence
Accounting: Equity method for the common-stock holding
Control: Not established by the reviewed filings
Founder ownership: Not disclosed; Coplan’s ~11% is a Forbes estimate, not a filing

Relationship does not establish ownership

Donald Trump Jr. is a 1789 Capital partner and advises both Polymarket and Kalshi. Spokesperson Alexa Henning says 1789 has invested about $500 million in Polymarket, including a reported $300 million tied to proposed financing at a $21 billion valuation. The record does not confirm that financing closed.

No source discloses Trump Jr.’s economic interest in 1789 or establishes that he personally owns Polymarket shares. The Financial Times alone reported a roughly $300,000 Kalshi grant made below a $2 billion valuation; Kalshi declined comment and the stake was reportedly heavily diluted. It began below 0.015%—at most about $3.3 million at Kalshi’s $22 billion valuation before dilution.

Kalshi’s May 2026 Series F disclosed a $1 billion raise at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue with Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley and ARK Invest. It disclosed no founder or investor ownership percentages.

A prospective roughly $1 billion Kalshi financing at a reported $40 billion valuation—with Sequoia and Wellington discussing leadership—remained in talks on 29 September 2026. It was not confirmed closed.

The CFTC identifies both Kalshi and Polymarket as CFTC-regulated prediction markets. On 30 September 2026, Michael Selig was the sole sitting member of the five-seat commission; that fact alone establishes no improper conduct or outcome.

What to watch

ICE’s next 10-Q, covering 30 September 2026—expected in late October or early November based on prior cadence, not an announced date. A drop below its filed 14% fully diluted stake could indicate primary-share dilution and help confirm whether Polymarket’s reported financing closed.

What it still will not show: Polymarket’s full cap table or Donald Trump Jr.’s personal economics. ICE’s stake is SEC-filed; 1789 Capital’s investment is reported and partly spokesperson-confirmed; Trump Jr.’s direct Polymarket ownership remains unestablished.

Any new Kalshi financing disclosures—especially investor, founder or Trump Jr. ownership details.

“The next hard number is ICE’s next filing.”
— The next verifiable test